Mathematical Transmission Dynamics and Intervention Strategies for Monkeypox: A Model-Based Approach Including Human-Rodent Interactions

Abstract

Study’s Excerpt/Novelty

• This research introduces a novel approach to monkeypox, which is a major public health problem because of threats of infection between animal-to-human and human-to-human transmissions of the disease.
• The study suggested an SEIR-type model and included diagnostics into part of the intervention techniques and human-to-animal transfer to grasp the additional path of disease propagation.
• The successful analysis of the model equation helps in obtaining a key variable which helps to determine if monkeypox can be eradicated or will continue to evade the population and sensitivity of some important parameters against the key variable.

Full Abstract

Monkeypox is now a major public health problem because of threats of infection, which include animal-to-human with human-to-human transmissions of the disease. In this paper, we proposed a SEIR-type model to understand different routes of disease spread by including human-to-animal transmission and intervention strategies. Isolation, hospitalization, and diagnosis parameters are incorporated into the human population as a means of reducing the spread of the disease. The model equations were first transformed to obtain the basic reproduction number Ro. The Disease-Free Equilibrium (DFE) and Endemic Equilibrium (EE) are obtained, and the equilibrium of differential systems free from the disease is stable when Ro < 1 and unstable otherwise.  The findings indicated that quarantine, hospitalization of infected individuals in the human population, and diagnosis help to maintain a low disease transmission rate in reducing the Basic reproduction number of monkeypox to have a value of 0.9338.